Odds and Ends

There’s nothing like a little exercise in statistics to brighten one’s morning…

Probability⁽¹⁾ of building a chain of 150 amino acids in which all linkages are peptide linkages:  »1 in 10⁴⁵

Probability⁽²⁾ of randomly attaining only L-amino acids in a peptide chain 150 amino acids long: »1 in 10⁴⁵

Probability⁽³⁾ of getting a specific required amino acid at a specific required site: »1 in 20

Probability⁽⁴⁾ of getting any particular protein 150 amino acids long: »1 in 10¹⁹⁵

Probability⁽⁵⁾ of randomly producing a functional protein 150 amino acids long:  »1 in 10⁷⁴

Probability⁽⁶⁾ that a random 150-amino-acid compound would be a functional protein: »1 in 10¹⁶⁴

“If we assume that a minimally complex cell needs at least 250 proteins of, on average, 150 amino acids and that the probability of producing just one such protein is 1 in 10¹⁶⁴  as calculated above, then the probability of producing all the necessary proteins needed to service a minimally complex cell is (1 in 10¹⁶⁴) multiplied by itelf 250 times, or 1 in 10^41,000.”

 – Stephen C. Meyer, PhD “Signature in the Cell” © 2009, pg 214

In light of the above, did life spontaneously generate from non-living “stuff” in the proverbial primordial soup?

Probably……..

 1: Peptide vs non-peptide 150 times -> (½)¹⁴⁹

2: Left-hand vs Right-hand 150 times -> (½)¹⁴⁹

3: There are 20 biologically occurring amino acids

4: (¹/₂₀)¹⁵⁰

5:  See Axe, “Estimating the Prevalence of Protein Sequences”

6: Multiplying (1) X (2) X (5) -> 10^{(45 + 45 + 74)}

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